Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kyzyltash · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Lugansk are 0W-2D-2L in their last 4 (DDLL), averaging 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Kyzyltash are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Kyzyltash hold a 13.6-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 55.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the Second League - Group 1, while Kyzyltash holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Kyzyltash
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
12.7%
Kyzyltash has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.75/2.00
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40