Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lugano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Mercedes are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 55.6 against 54.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.0% in the Primera C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
34.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80