Luganovs
Estrella Del Sur
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugano 0-0 Estrella Del Sur, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugano 1-1 Estrella Del Sur
Original prediction
Lugano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 41.5% | 41.8% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.72 | 32.8% | 34.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 25.7% | 23.4% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Projected Score
Lugano 0–0 Estrella Del Sur
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Lugano
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LuganoDWDWL
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Estrella Del SurDLDLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
LuganoEstrella Del Sur
36.9Attack33.3
72.6Defence67.9
52.4Form47.6
55.7Power51.3
0.78xG0.50