Luganovs
Argentino Rosario
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 10/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lugano 0-0 Argentino Rosario, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugano 2-3 Argentino Rosario
Original prediction
Lugano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.6% | 52.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.8% | 30.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 5.10 | 17.6% | 17.0% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Projected Score
Lugano 0–0 Argentino Rosario
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Lugano
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LuganoDDDWD
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
Argentino RosarioLDLDD
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
LuganoArgentino Rosario
36.7Attack30.0
72.2Defence56.7
51.1Form26.7
55.1Power40.2
1.08xG0.44