Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugano II 0-1 Cham
Original prediction
Cham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 24.9% | 28.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.3% | 26.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 51.8% | 45.6% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Cham
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Cham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lugano IILWLWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ChamWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Lugano IICham
62.5Attack54.2
16.7Defence62.5
37.5Form66.7
40.8Power62.2
1.51xG2.48