Lugano IIvs
Bellinzona
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · 1. Liga Promotion · 10/25/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugano II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugano II 1-1 Bellinzona
Original prediction
Lugano II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 23:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.6% | 58.6% | 20.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.7% | 19.5% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 36.6% | 21.9% | -14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Lugano II
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Lugano II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60