Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bavois · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lugano II 3-2 Bavois
Original prediction
Bavois
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 24.3% | 32.3% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.2% | 24.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 52.5% | 43.4% | -9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bavois
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Bavois has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lugano IILWLLL
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BavoisDLLDW
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Lugano IIBavois
66.7Attack33.3
0.0Defence75.0
25.0Form41.7
33.4Power51.6
1.59xG1.77