Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bavois · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Lugano II are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Bavois are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bavois hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (43.7 v 49.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.0% in the 1. Liga Promotion, while Bavois holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bavois
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
8.0%
Bavois has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80