Ludogoretsvs
Septemvri Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/14/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ludogorets · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ludogorets 2-0 Septemvri Sofia, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ludogorets 2-1 Septemvri Sofia
Original prediction
Ludogorets
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 75.9% | 73.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.68 | 16.2% | 17.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 11.60 | 7.9% | 8.9% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Projected Score
Ludogorets 2–0 Septemvri Sofia
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Ludogorets
Probability
73.7%
Model confidence
73.7%
Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LudogoretsWDDWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Septemvri SofiaLDWWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LudogoretsSeptemvri Sofia
58.3Attack29.2
75.0Defence45.8
83.3Form33.3
75.3Power39.1
2.09xG0.46