First LeagueFirst League
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:10
Ludogorets

Ludogorets

Home
WW
10
Full time
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Away
LL
Huvepharma Arena
GoalVio prediction
56% confidence
Ludogorets(56%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Ludogorets
56%
Draw
26%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
18%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Ludogorets
34
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
9
Defence
Ludogorets
91
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
6
Momentum
Ludogorets
100
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
Danger (xG)
Ludogorets
0.90
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Ludogorets)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Ludogorets)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
LudogoretsLudogorets
WWLD
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv
LL

Probability breakdown

56% confidence
Ludogorets56%
Draw26%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv18%

Ludogorets leads with 56% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Ludogorets head into this in First League fixture at Huvepharma Arena in decent form (WW), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv arrive in mixed form (LL). Ludogorets have a 100% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv over 2 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Ludogorets's modest attack (34/100) faces a vulnerable Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence (6/100), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack is up against a watertight Ludogorets backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Ludogorets's favour.

Ludogorets have won 2 of their last 3 home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game at home. Lokomotiv Plovdiv have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Ludogorets and Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Ludogorets to win with 56% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Ludogorets 5558%, Draw 2620%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1822%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Ludogorets

Ludogorets

W
vs Septemvri Sofia
10 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Teuta Durrës
10 Jul 2026
10
L
@ CSKA 1948
16 May 2026
01
D
vs Levski Sofia
13 May 2026
11
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

L
@ Arda Kardzhali
16 May 2026
04
L
@ Cherno More Varna
12 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

GoalVio's model predicts Ludogorets to win with 56% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more