GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 8/17/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Ludogorets · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Ludogorets are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while FC Astana are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ludogorets hold a 14.4-point power-rating edge (51.9 v 37.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Ludogorets holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Ludogorets

Probability

49.4%

Model confidence

49.4%

Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LudogoretsWLWLD

GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
FC AstanaWLLLD

GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LudogoretsFC Astana
66.7Attack50.0
41.7Defence0.0
50.0Form50.0
51.9Power37.5
2.04xG1.37
View match centre →