Ludogoretsvs
Arda Kardzhali
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ludogorets · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ludogorets 5-0 Arda Kardzhali
Original prediction
Ludogorets
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.2% | 54.6% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.9% | 25.6% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 6.59 | 14.0% | 19.7% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–013%
Predicted outcome
Ludogorets
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00