GGOALVIO

Bulgaria · Second League · 7/23/2023, 3:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Ludogorets II are 1W-2D-1L in their last 4 (DWDL), averaging 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Septemvri Sofia are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Septemvri Sofia hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 62.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the Second League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 25% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

39.9%

Model confidence

39.9%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Ludogorets IIDWDL

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.75/1.50

BTTS 3/4O2.5 3/4
Septemvri SofiaWLLWW

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Ludogorets IISeptemvri Sofia
33.3Attack45.1
66.7Defence74.5
66.7Form63.7
58.8Power62.9
0.68xG1.03
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