Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zagora · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lucko 1-3 Zagora
Original prediction
Zagora
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.1% | 30.3% | -14.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.2% | 26.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.7% | 43.4% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Zagora
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Zagora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LuckoLDLWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZagoraWDLDD
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LuckoZagora
35.6Attack100.0
48.9Defence83.3
32.2Form66.7
40.8Power77.5
0.93xG1.73