Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lucko · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lucko 2-1 Trnje
Original prediction
Lucko
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.1% | 36.7% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.3% | 28.5% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.6% | 34.8% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Lucko
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Lucko has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LuckoLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TrnjeWLLDW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LuckoTrnje
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.60xG1.36