Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dugo Selo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lucko 0-1 Dugo Selo
Original prediction
Dugo Selo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 47.9% | 33.0% | -14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.8% | 26.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 25.4% | 40.3% | 14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Dugo Selo
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Dugo Selo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LuckoDLWDL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Dugo SeloLLWDW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LuckoDugo Selo
35.6Attack43.3
48.9Defence58.9
32.2Form41.1
40.8Power48.4
0.92xG1.25