Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Louletano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Louletano 0-1 Rio Ave
Original prediction
Louletano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.34 | 17.1% | 37.4% | 20.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.4% | 26.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 59.6% | 36.5% | -23.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Louletano
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Louletano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LouletanoLWLWW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Rio AveWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
LouletanoRio Ave
50.0Attack50.0
83.3Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
83.3Power50.0
1.95xG1.23