Louisville Cityvs
Loudoun United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Louisville City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Louisville City 2-1 Loudoun United
Original prediction
Louisville City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.8% | 62.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.6% | 19.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 6.20 | 14.7% | 17.9% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Louisville City
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Louisville City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00