Louisville Cityvs
Indy Eleven
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Louisville City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Louisville City 4-1 Indy Eleven
Original prediction
Louisville City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.8% | 50.1% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.4% | 23.4% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 4.20 | 21.8% | 26.5% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Louisville City
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Louisville City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60