Louisville Cityvs
El Paso Locomotive
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Louisville City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Louisville City 1-2 El Paso Locomotive
Original prediction
Louisville City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 56.6% | 39.5% | -17.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.3% | 23.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.56 | 20.1% | 37.4% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Louisville City
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Louisville City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40