Loughgallvs
Newry City AFC
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newry City AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Loughgall 2-1 Newry City AFC
Original prediction
Newry City AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.3% | 33.8% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.7% | 23.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.0% | 42.4% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Newry City AFC
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Newry City AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60