Loughgallvs
Moyola Park
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Loughgall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Loughgall 1-2 Moyola Park
Original prediction
Loughgall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 56.6% | 48.9% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.3% | 25.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.52 | 20.1% | 25.3% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Loughgall
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Loughgall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60