Loughgallvs
Ballinamallard United
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Loughgall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Loughgall 1-6 Ballinamallard United
Original prediction
Loughgall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 58.8% | 48.8% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.4% | 24.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 5.08 | 17.7% | 26.5% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Loughgall
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Loughgall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20