Loudoun Unitedvs
Indy Eleven
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Indy Eleven · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Loudoun United 1-1 Indy Eleven
Original prediction
Indy Eleven
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 41.0% | 33.7% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.7% | 27.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 33.4% | 38.8% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Indy Eleven
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Indy Eleven has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20