Lota Schwagervs
Provincial Ovalle
COMPLETEDChile · Segunda División · 9/26/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lota Schwager · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lota Schwager 1-0 Provincial Ovalle, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lota Schwager 1-2 Provincial Ovalle
Original prediction
Lota Schwager
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.4% | 44.6% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.4% | 30.3% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.3% | 25.0% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Projected Score
Lota Schwager 1–0 Provincial Ovalle
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Lota Schwager
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Lota Schwager has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60