Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorient · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorient 2-2 Toulouse
Original prediction
Lorient
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.8% | 44.2% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 28.5% | 27.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 31.8% | 28.2% | -3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Lorient
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Lorient has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LorientWLDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ToulouseLDLLW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LorientToulouse
22.2Attack22.2
77.8Defence44.4
44.4Form11.1
51.1Power29.5
1.51xG0.93