Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paris FC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorient 1-0 Paris FC
Original prediction
Paris FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 26.7% | 27.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 28.1% | 27.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 45.3% | 44.6% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Paris FC
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Paris FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LorientLDWLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Paris FCWDWWD
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LorientParis FC
33.3Attack53.3
60.0Defence80.0
33.3Form73.3
45.2Power70.5
0.93xG1.35