Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monaco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorient 1-0 Monaco
Original prediction
Monaco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 26.5% | 27.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.8% | 28.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 45.7% | 44.3% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Monaco
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Monaco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LorientWLDWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MonacoWDWWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LorientMonaco
33.3Attack55.6
66.7Defence72.2
44.4Form77.8
51.1Power71.7
0.87xG1.23