Lorientvs
Estac Troyes
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 8/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorient · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorient 1-2 Estac Troyes
Original prediction
Lorient
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 50.9% | 41.6% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 27.0% | 28.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 22.1% | 30.3% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Lorient
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Lorient has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LorientDLLWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Estac TroyesDDDWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LorientEstac Troyes
0.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence100.0
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.39xG1.18