GGOALVIO

France · Ligue 1 · 8/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Estac Troyes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Lorient are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Estac Troyes are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DDWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Estac Troyes hold a 13.0-point power-rating edge (37.0 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.7% in the Ligue 1, while Estac Troyes holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Estac Troyes

Probability

48.6%

Model confidence

11.7%

Estac Troyes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

LorientLLWWW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Estac TroyesDDWWW

GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LorientEstac Troyes
42.2Attack50.0
35.3Defence50.0
28.4Form50.0
37.0Power50.0
1.27xG1.81
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