Lorca Deportivavs
Elche II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorca Deportiva · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorca Deportiva 1-1 Elche II
Original prediction
Lorca Deportiva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.3% | 39.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.1% | 29.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.5% | 31.5% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Lorca Deportiva
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Lorca Deportiva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.75/0.75