Lorca Deportivavs
Castellonense
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/27/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorca Deportiva · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorca Deportiva 1-0 Castellonense
Original prediction
Lorca Deportiva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.8% | 36.4% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.8% | 29.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.4% | 34.1% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Lorca Deportiva
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Lorca Deportiva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00