Lorca Deportivavs
Atlético Baleares
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorca Deportiva · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lorca Deportiva 2-2 Atlético Baleares
Original prediction
Lorca Deportiva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.6% | 45.5% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.5% | 27.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.0% | 26.6% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Lorca Deportiva
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Lorca Deportiva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00