First DivisionFirst Division
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 14:58
Longford Town

Longford Town

Home
W
12
Full time
Wexford

Wexford

Away
L
Bishopsgate
GoalVio prediction
58% confidence
Longford Town(58%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Longford Town
58%
Draw
25%
Wexford
17%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Longford Town
73
Wexford
34
Defence
Longford Town
66
Wexford
27
Momentum
Longford Town
100
Wexford
0
Danger (xG)
Longford Town
1.80
Wexford
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.99 xG for Longford Town and 1.02 xG for Wexford — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Longford Town holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's meaningful attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.01 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Longford Town's Attack Score (73) vs Wexford's Defensive Stability (27) and Wexford's attack (34) vs Longford Town's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Longford Town)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Wexford)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Longford Town)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Wexford)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Longford TownLongford Town
WLLL
WexfordWexford
LDLDD

Probability breakdown

58% confidence
Longford Town58%
Draw25%
Wexford17%

Longford Town leads with 58% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Longford Town Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Longford Town host Wexford in First Division. Longford Town have recorded LLWWWL in recent matches while Wexford arrive with a run of DDLDLW.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.99 expected goals for Longford Town against 1.02 for Wexford — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Longford Town's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 61% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Longford Town arrive in better recent form — 3 wins from 10 matches (LLWWWL) against Wexford's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Longford Town are generating a commanding xG advantage — 1.99 projected against 1.02 for Wexford. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.97 is the clearest signal in the model that Longford Town are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Longford Town are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Longford Town have been conceding 1.82 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Longford Town

Longford Town

W
vs UCD
4 Jul 2026
21
L
@ Kerry
26 Jun 2026
12
L
@ Bray Wanderers
19 Jun 2026
25
L
vs Cork City
16 May 2026
01
Wexford

Wexford

L
@ St Patrick's Athl.
17 Jul 2026
12
D
vs Kerry
10 Jul 2026
22
L
@ Finn Harps
3 Jul 2026
01
D
vs Treaty United
26 Jun 2026
00
D
@ Athlone Town
19 Jun 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Longford Town vs Wexford?

GoalVio's model predicts Longford Town to win with 58% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Longford Town vs Wexford?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Wexford?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Longford Town vs Wexford?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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