Longford Townvs
UCD
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/24/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Longford Town 0-2 UCD
Original prediction
UCD
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 October 2026 at 21:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.0% | 34.3% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.8% | 27.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.2% | 38.3% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Longford TownWDDWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
UCDWDWLL
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Longford TownUCD
45.4Attack62.0
57.4Defence52.8
48.1Form51.9
52.0Power55.0
1.37xG1.46