Longford Townvs
Kerry FC
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/5/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Longford Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Longford Town 0-1 Kerry FC
Original prediction
Longford Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.1% | 40.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 26.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.9% | 32.4% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Longford Town
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Longford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80