Longford Townvs
Cork City
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 9/26/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cork City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Longford Town 2-1 Cork City
Original prediction
Cork City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.89 | 23.1% | 18.3% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 23.9% | 22.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.0% | 59.6% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–112%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Cork City
Probability
59.6%
Model confidence
59.6%
Cork City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40