Longford Townvs
Athlone Town
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/16/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Longford Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Longford Town 1-0 Athlone Town
Original prediction
Longford Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.1% | 37.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.0% | 29.3% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.31 | 38.8% | 33.6% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Longford Town
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Longford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60