Lokomotive Leipzigvs
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Nordost · 9/26/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotive Leipzig 3-4 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Original prediction
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.6% | 16.9% | -18.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 16.1% | -8.9 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.4% | 67.0% | 27.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
27.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Probability
67.0%
Model confidence
67.0%
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80