Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lokomotiv are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Xorazm are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.3% in the Super League, while Lokomotiv holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00