Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Lokomotiv are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ural are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ural hold a 2.6-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 48.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.4% in the Cup, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60