Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lokomotiv are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Spaeri are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (66.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lokomotiv holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20