Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lokomotiv are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Samgurali are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (66.3 v 58.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Lokomotiv holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
12.1%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40