Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Neftchi · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv 0-1 Neftchi
Original prediction
Neftchi
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.32 | 27.3% | 21.1% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 22.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.4% | 56.5% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Neftchi
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Neftchi has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LokomotivWWDWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NeftchiWWLWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LokomotivNeftchi
57.1Attack77.8
57.1Defence73.0
55.6Form76.2
57.7Power73.7
0.94xG1.84