Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv 0-0 Nasaf
Original prediction
Nasaf
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.3% | 35.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.8% | 26.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 37.9% | 38.3% | 0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LokomotivWLWWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NasafLWWDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LokomotivNasaf
56.5Attack50.7
56.5Defence68.1
55.1Form53.6
57.3Power58.3
1.16xG1.21