Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Lokomotiv 2-0 Mash'al, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv 3-0 Mash'al
Original prediction
Lokomotiv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.7% | 68.2% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.25 | 17.4% | 18.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 9.19 | 9.9% | 13.0% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.5 pts
Projected Score
Lokomotiv 2–0 Mash'al
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
68.2%
Model confidence
68.2%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LokomotivDWWLW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Mash'alLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LokomotivMash'al
55.0Attack16.7
55.0Defence35.0
53.3Form6.7
55.9Power23.7
2.54xG0.55