Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv 4-1 Bunyodkor
Original prediction
Lokomotiv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.2% | 58.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.2% | 22.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.43 | 20.6% | 19.0% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LokomotivWLWLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
BunyodkorLLLLL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LokomotivBunyodkor
51.9Attack35.2
53.7Defence50.0
51.9Form35.2
54.4Power42.8
1.72xG0.86