Lokomotiv Sofiavs
Ludogorets
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/6/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ludogorets · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Sofia 1-2 Ludogorets
Original prediction
Ludogorets
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.64 | 16.4% | 17.0% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.1% | 22.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 60.6% | 60.3% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Ludogorets
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00