Lokomotiv Sofiavs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lokomotiv Sofia 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Original prediction
Lokomotiv Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.3% | 40.4% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.9% | 30.4% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 25.8% | 29.2% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.9 pts
Projected Score
Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv Sofia
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Lokomotiv Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00