Lokomotiv Sofiavs
CSKA Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSKA Sofia · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Sofia 0-2 CSKA Sofia
Original prediction
CSKA Sofia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.94 | 18.6% | 13.9% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.7% | 18.8% | -4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 57.6% | 67.3% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
CSKA Sofia
Probability
67.3%
Model confidence
67.3%
CSKA Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40