Lokomotiv Sofiavs
Botev Vratsa
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv Sofia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lokomotiv Sofia 1-1 Botev Vratsa
Original prediction
Lokomotiv Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.3% | 45.8% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.5% | 27.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 24.2% | 26.3% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv Sofia
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Lokomotiv Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60