First LeagueFirst League
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 14:55
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Home
LL
21
Full time
Septemvri Sofia

Septemvri Sofia

Away
LWW
Stadion Lokomotiv
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Septemvri Sofia(26%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
43%
Draw
31%
Septemvri Sofia
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
9
Septemvri Sofia
47
Defence
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
6
Septemvri Sofia
77
Momentum
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
Septemvri Sofia
67
Danger (xG)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Sofia
1.20
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Septemvri Sofia)
1.20
avg per match
xG against (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Septemvri Sofia)
0.60
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv
LL
Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia
LWWW

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Lokomotiv Plovdiv43%
Draw31%
Septemvri Sofia26%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Lokomotiv Plovdiv head into this in First League fixture at Stadion Lokomotiv in mixed form (LL), while Septemvri Sofia arrive in decent form (LWW). Lokomotiv Plovdiv have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 67% for Septemvri Sofia over 3 games.

Tactically, Septemvri Sofia hold the edge. Their decent attack (47/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence (6/100), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack faces a watertight Septemvri Sofia backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Septemvri Sofia have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Septemvri Sofia to win with 43% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4271%, Draw 3112%, Septemvri Sofia 2617%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

L
@ Arda Kardzhali
16 May 2026
04
L
@ Cherno More Varna
12 May 2026
02
Septemvri Sofia

Septemvri Sofia

L
@ Ludogorets
10 Jul 2026
01
W
vs Hebar 1918
7 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Vihren
1 Jul 2026
20
W
vs Spartak Varna
14 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

GoalVio's model predicts Septemvri Sofia to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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